Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb

A. Gojak 68'

I. Hajrović 19' (pen)

10/4/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Constant Vanden Stock

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Anderlecht32%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Zagreb40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.27

Anderlecht

1.11

Dinamo Zagreb

1.27

Dinamo Zagreb creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.00

Dinamo Zagreb

1.33

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.20

Dinamo Zagreb

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

60%

Anderlecht or Dinamo Zagreb

72%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb

68%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

13%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

67%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

30%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

10%

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

45%

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.00 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.33 + Anderlecht defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Anderlecht scores more

32%

level

28%

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

40%

Dinamo Zagreb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Trebel

Anderlecht · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

Petar Stojanović

18'

Ognjen Vranješ

19'

I. HajrovićPenalty

41'

Kévin Théophile-Catherine

46'

46'

46'

49'

61'

66'

68'

A. Gojak↳ Daniel Olmo

76'

I. Šunjić← I. Hajrović

85'

J. Lawrence← L. Dimata

89'

R. Morioka← Z. Bakkali

90'

Kévin Théophile-Catherine

90'

Kévin Théophile-Catherine

90'

M. Gavranović← M. Oršić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtDinamo

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots15

8Corners6

13Fouls24

Shots

11Total Shots15

2On Target10

5Off Target2

4Blocked3

4Inside Box7

7Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

415Total Passes286

340Accurate Passes203

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls24

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb beat Anderlecht 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 4, 2018.

Goals: I. Hajrović (19' pen), A. Gojak (68').

Anderlecht controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Constant Vanden Stock in Brussels.

Anderlecht vs Dinamo Zagreb — UEFA Europa League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb