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Anderlecht vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Charleroi
Charleroi
F. Amuzu 81'
M. Vlap 45+1' (pen)
L. Nmecha 23' (pen)
1/19/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 25Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Anderlecht43%
×Draw25%
Charleroi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.54
Charleroi
1.29

Anderlecht creates 19% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.64
Charleroi
1.25

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.32
Charleroi
1.45

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par
Charleroi+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
68%
Anderlecht or Charleroi
75%
Draw or Charleroi
57%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
21%
Charleroi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
45%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
20%
Charleroi 1+ goals
72%
Charleroi 2+ goals
37%
Charleroi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
57%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + Charleroi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Charleroi attack 1.25 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Anderlecht scores more
43%
level
25%
Charleroi scores more
32%

Anderlecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
G. Hendrickx← J. Van Cleemput
23'
L. NmechaPenalty
45'
Marco Ilaimaharitra
45'
Dorian Dessoleil
45+1'
M. VlapPenalty
46'
K. Rezaei← M. Ilaimaharitra
50'
Joris Kayembe Ditu
64'
A. Benchaib← M. Fall
71'
L. Dimata← L. Nmecha
78'
S. Berahino← R. Morioka
78'
M. Bruno← J. Kayembe
81'
F. Amuzu↳ L. Dimata
82'
M. Dauda← M. Vlap
82'
M. Stroeykens← P. Mukairu
88'
M. Kana← A. El Hadj

Possession

60%Anderlecht

Shots

10Anderlecht

Statistics

AnderlechtCharleroi
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots2
6Corners4
2Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots2
4On Target0
6Off Target2
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
2Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Charleroi

Anderlecht beat Charleroi 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on January 19, 2021.

Goals: L. Nmecha (23' pen), M. Vlap (45+1' pen), F. Amuzu (81').

Anderlecht controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 2.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.