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Anderlecht vs AEK Athens FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
8/21/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundLotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Anderlecht45%
×Draw25%
AEK Athens FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.58
AEK Athens FC
1.23

Anderlecht creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.80
AEK Athens FC
1.55

allows per match

Anderlecht
0.90
AEK Athens FC
1.36

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
70%
Anderlecht or AEK Athens FC
75%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
55%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
23%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
47%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
21%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
71%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
35%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
60%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.80 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

AEK Athens FC attack 1.55 + Anderlecht defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anderlecht scores more
45%
level
25%
AEK Athens FC scores more
30%

Anderlecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs AEK Athens FC

Anderlecht and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Anderlecht.