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Andelsbuch vs Meiningen — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Andelsbuch
Andelsbuch
FT
1 – 2
Meiningen
Meiningen
10/16/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 16Bezegg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Andelsbuch54%
×Draw20%
Meiningen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andelsbuch
2.31
Meiningen
1.55

Andelsbuch creates 49% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Andelsbuch
2.03
Meiningen
1.40

allows per match

Andelsbuch
1.71
Meiningen
2.60

finishing

Andelsbuch+0.00on par
Meiningen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andelsbuch ↓

Meiningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Andelsbuch or draw
74%
Andelsbuch or Meiningen
80%
Draw or Meiningen
46%

Winning margin

Andelsbuch wins by 2+
33%
Meiningen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Andelsbuch 1+ goals
90%
Andelsbuch 2+ goals
67%
Andelsbuch 3+ goals
40%
Meiningen 1+ goals
79%
Meiningen 2+ goals
46%
Meiningen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Andelsbuch (draw refunded)
68%
Meiningen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andelsbuch at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.71 · 59 matches

Meiningen away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andelsbuch attack 2.03 + Meiningen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.31

Meiningen attack 1.40 + Andelsbuch defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Andelsbuch scores more
54%
level
20%
Meiningen scores more
26%

Andelsbuch at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Andelsbuch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Andelsbuch 1–2 Meiningen

Meiningen beat Andelsbuch 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Bezegg-Stadion in Andelsbuch.