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Andelsbuch vs Brederis — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Andelsbuch
Andelsbuch
FT
8 – 1
Brederis
Brederis
10/2/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 12Bezegg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Andelsbuch70%
×Draw15%
Brederis15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andelsbuch
3.21
Brederis
1.49

Andelsbuch creates 115% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Andelsbuch
2.03
Brederis
1.27

allows per match

Andelsbuch
1.71
Brederis
4.40

finishing

Andelsbuch+0.00on par
Brederis+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andelsbuch ↓

Brederis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Andelsbuch or draw
85%
Andelsbuch or Brederis
85%
Draw or Brederis
30%

Winning margin

Andelsbuch wins by 2+
51%
Brederis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Andelsbuch 1+ goals
96%
Andelsbuch 2+ goals
82%
Andelsbuch 3+ goals
60%
Brederis 1+ goals
77%
Brederis 2+ goals
44%
Brederis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Andelsbuch (draw refunded)
82%
Brederis (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andelsbuch at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.71 · 59 matches

Brederis away — creates 1.27, concedes 4.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andelsbuch attack 2.03 + Brederis defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.21

Brederis attack 1.27 + Andelsbuch defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Andelsbuch scores more
70%
level
15%
Brederis scores more
15%

Andelsbuch at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Andelsbuch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andelsbuch vs Brederis

Andelsbuch beat Brederis 8-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Bezegg-Stadion in Andelsbuch.