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Andau vs Schattendorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Andau
Andau
FT
2 – 0
Schattendorf
Schattendorf
4/30/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 24Sportplatz Andau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Andau47%
×Draw21%
Schattendorf32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andau
2.06
Schattendorf
1.66

Andau creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Andau
1.73
Schattendorf
1.11

allows per match

Andau
2.20
Schattendorf
2.40

finishing

Andau+0.00on par
Schattendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andau ↓

Schattendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Andau or draw
68%
Andau or Schattendorf
79%
Draw or Schattendorf
53%

Winning margin

Andau wins by 2+
27%
Schattendorf wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Andau 1+ goals
87%
Andau 2+ goals
61%
Andau 3+ goals
34%
Schattendorf 1+ goals
81%
Schattendorf 2+ goals
49%
Schattendorf 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Andau (draw refunded)
60%
Schattendorf (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andau at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Schattendorf away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andau attack 1.73 + Schattendorf defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.06

Schattendorf attack 1.11 + Andau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Andau scores more
47%
level
21%
Schattendorf scores more
32%

Andau at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Andau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andau vs Schattendorf

Andau beat Schattendorf 2-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Andau in Andau.