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Andau vs Pinkafeld — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Andau
Andau
FT
1 – 6
Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
9/10/2022Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 8Sportplatz Andau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Andau37%
×Draw21%
Pinkafeld42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andau
1.86
Pinkafeld
2.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Andau
1.73
Pinkafeld
1.82

allows per match

Andau
2.20
Pinkafeld
2.00

finishing

Andau+0.00on par
Pinkafeld+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andau ↓

Pinkafeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Andau or draw
58%
Andau or Pinkafeld
79%
Draw or Pinkafeld
63%

Winning margin

Andau wins by 2+
19%
Pinkafeld wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Andau 1+ goals
84%
Andau 2+ goals
55%
Andau 3+ goals
28%
Pinkafeld 1+ goals
87%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
59%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Andau (draw refunded)
46%
Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andau at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Pinkafeld away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.00 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andau attack 1.73 + Pinkafeld defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pinkafeld attack 1.82 + Andau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Andau scores more
37%
level
21%
Pinkafeld scores more
42%

Pinkafeld at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andau vs Pinkafeld

Pinkafeld beat Andau 6-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Andau in Andau.