Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Andau vs Kohfidisch — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Andau
Andau
FT
1 – 1
Kohfidisch
Kohfidisch
4/2/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 20Sportplatz Andau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Andau43%
×Draw22%
Kohfidisch35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andau
1.94
Kohfidisch
1.72

Andau creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

Andau
1.73
Kohfidisch
1.24

allows per match

Andau
2.20
Kohfidisch
2.15

finishing

Andau+0.00on par
Kohfidisch+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andau ↓

Kohfidisch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Andau or draw
65%
Andau or Kohfidisch
78%
Draw or Kohfidisch
57%

Winning margin

Andau wins by 2+
24%
Kohfidisch wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Andau 1+ goals
86%
Andau 2+ goals
58%
Andau 3+ goals
30%
Kohfidisch 1+ goals
82%
Kohfidisch 2+ goals
51%
Kohfidisch 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Andau (draw refunded)
56%
Kohfidisch (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andau at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Kohfidisch away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andau attack 1.73 + Kohfidisch defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kohfidisch attack 1.24 + Andau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Andau scores more
43%
level
22%
Kohfidisch scores more
35%

Andau at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Andau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Andau 1–1 Kohfidisch

Andau and Kohfidisch drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Andau in Andau.