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Anápolis vs Interporto — Serie D 2018

Anápolis
Anápolis
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Interporto
Interporto
6/10/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Anápolis85%
×Draw11%
Interporto4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anápolis
2.67
Interporto
0.39

Anápolis creates 585% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

Anápolis
1.48
Interporto
0.23

allows per match

Anápolis
0.55
Interporto
3.85

finishing

Anápolis+0.00on par
Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anápolis ↓

Interporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anápolis or draw
96%
Anápolis or Interporto
89%
Draw or Interporto
15%

Winning margin

Anápolis wins by 2+
65%
Interporto wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Anápolis 1+ goals
93%
Anápolis 2+ goals
74%
Anápolis 3+ goals
49%
Interporto 1+ goals
32%
Interporto 2+ goals
6%
Interporto 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Anápolis (draw refunded)
96%
Interporto (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anápolis at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.55 · 29 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anápolis attack 1.48 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.67

Interporto attack 0.23 + Anápolis defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Anápolis scores more
85%
level
11%
Interporto scores more
4%

Anápolis at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Anápolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Anápolis 7–0 Interporto

Anápolis beat Interporto 7-0 in Serie D on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte in Anápolis, Goiás.