Anapolina 0–1 Operario Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Anapolina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Operario Ferroviario

Regis 41'

5/18/2019

Serie D · Round 3Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte (Anápolis, Goiás)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Anapolina41%

×Draw28%

Operario Ferroviario30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnapolinaExpected goals in this matchOperario Ferroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Anapolina

1.25

Operario Ferroviario

1.03

Anapolina creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

0.67

creates per match

0.73

1.33

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Anapolina

0.67

Operario Ferroviario

0.73

allows per match

Anapolina

1.33

Operario Ferroviario

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anapolina+0.00on par

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anapolina ↓

Operario Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Anapolina or draw

70%

Anapolina or Operario Ferroviario

72%

Draw or Operario Ferroviario

59%

Winning margin

Anapolina wins by 2+

18%

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Anapolina 1+ goals

71%

Anapolina 2+ goals

36%

Anapolina 3+ goals

13%

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

64%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

28%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Anapolina (draw refunded)

58%

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anapolina at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Operario Ferroviario away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anapolina attack 0.67 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.73 + Anapolina defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Anapolina scores more

41%

level

28%

Operario Ferroviario scores more

30%

Anapolina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Anapolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Regis

46'

Lucas Silva← Cledson

66'

Natan← Lucas Kattah

67'

Ayrton← Matheus Lacerda

76'

Marcus← Pedro Gabriel

77'

Julio Cesar← Wesley

86'

Alexandro← Ygor

Anapolina

Operario

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Waldemar Lemos

46'▲Lucas Silva←▼Cledson

67'▲Ayrton←▼Matheus Lacerda

76'▲Marcus←▼Pedro Gabriel

Anapolina substitutes

SilvaAyrtonMarcusRicardoItaporangaBastosRamboJudvanLuanAnjinho

Manager: Celso Rodrigues

66'▲Natan←▼Lucas Kattah

77'▲Julio Cesar←▼Wesley

86'▲Alexandro←▼Ygor

Operario Ferroviario substitutes

NatanCesarAlexandroGelsonHadrielJuninhoArroz