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Anaitasuna vs Touring — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Anaitasuna
Anaitasuna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Touring
Touring
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Campo Txerloia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Anaitasuna47%
×Draw26%
Touring27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anaitasuna
1.48
Touring
1.06

Anaitasuna creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

creates per match

Anaitasuna
1.48
Touring
1.21

allows per match

Anaitasuna
0.91
Touring
1.48

finishing

Anaitasuna+0.00on par
Touring+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anaitasuna ↓

Touring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anaitasuna or draw
73%
Anaitasuna or Touring
74%
Draw or Touring
53%

Winning margin

Anaitasuna wins by 2+
23%
Touring wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Anaitasuna 1+ goals
77%
Anaitasuna 2+ goals
43%
Anaitasuna 3+ goals
19%
Touring 1+ goals
65%
Touring 2+ goals
29%
Touring 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Anaitasuna (draw refunded)
63%
Touring (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anaitasuna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

Touring away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anaitasuna attack 1.48 + Touring defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Touring attack 1.21 + Anaitasuna defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Anaitasuna scores more
47%
level
26%
Touring scores more
27%

Anaitasuna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Anaitasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Anaitasuna 2–0 Touring

Anaitasuna beat Touring 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Txerloia in Azkoitia.