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Anaitasuna vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Anaitasuna
Anaitasuna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Campo Txerloia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Anaitasuna34%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anaitasuna
1.14
Deportivo Alavés II
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Anaitasuna
1.48
Deportivo Alavés II
1.53

allows per match

Anaitasuna
0.91
Deportivo Alavés II
0.79

finishing

Anaitasuna+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anaitasuna ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Anaitasuna or draw
62%
Anaitasuna or Deportivo Alavés II
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
66%

Winning margin

Anaitasuna wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Anaitasuna 1+ goals
68%
Anaitasuna 2+ goals
32%
Anaitasuna 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anaitasuna (draw refunded)
47%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anaitasuna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anaitasuna attack 1.48 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.14

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Anaitasuna defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Anaitasuna scores more
34%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
38%

Deportivo Alavés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anaitasuna 0 – 0 Deportivo Alavés II

Anaitasuna and Deportivo Alavés II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Txerloia in Azkoitia.