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Anaitasuna vs Beti Gazte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Anaitasuna
Anaitasuna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beti Gazte
Beti Gazte
1/15/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Campo Txerloia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Anaitasuna65%
×Draw20%
Beti Gazte15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anaitasuna
2.11
Beti Gazte
0.88

Anaitasuna creates 140% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Anaitasuna
1.48
Beti Gazte
0.84

allows per match

Anaitasuna
0.91
Beti Gazte
2.74

finishing

Anaitasuna+0.00on par
Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anaitasuna ↓

Beti Gazte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anaitasuna or draw
85%
Anaitasuna or Beti Gazte
80%
Draw or Beti Gazte
35%

Winning margin

Anaitasuna wins by 2+
41%
Beti Gazte wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Anaitasuna 1+ goals
88%
Anaitasuna 2+ goals
62%
Anaitasuna 3+ goals
35%
Beti Gazte 1+ goals
59%
Beti Gazte 2+ goals
22%
Beti Gazte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Anaitasuna (draw refunded)
82%
Beti Gazte (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anaitasuna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anaitasuna attack 1.48 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.11

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + Anaitasuna defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Anaitasuna scores more
65%
level
20%
Beti Gazte scores more
15%

Anaitasuna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Anaitasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anaitasuna vs Beti Gazte

Anaitasuna beat Beti Gazte 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Txerloia in Azkoitia.