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Anaitasuna vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Anaitasuna
Anaitasuna
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
10/22/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Campo Txerloia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Anaitasuna56%
×Draw25%
Aurrerá Vitoria20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anaitasuna
1.63
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.86

Anaitasuna creates 90% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

creates per match

Anaitasuna
1.48
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Anaitasuna
0.91
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Anaitasuna+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anaitasuna ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anaitasuna or draw
80%
Anaitasuna or Aurrerá Vitoria
75%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
44%

Winning margin

Anaitasuna wins by 2+
30%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Anaitasuna 1+ goals
80%
Anaitasuna 2+ goals
48%
Anaitasuna 3+ goals
22%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
58%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
21%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Anaitasuna (draw refunded)
74%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anaitasuna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anaitasuna attack 1.48 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Anaitasuna defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Anaitasuna scores more
56%
level
25%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
20%

Anaitasuna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Anaitasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anaitasuna vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Anaitasuna beat Aurrerá Vitoria 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Txerloia in Azkoitia.