Anaitasuna 4–4 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

Anaitasuna

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

10/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo Txerloia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Anaitasuna52%

×Draw25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnaitasunaExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.92

Anaitasuna

1.56

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

Anaitasuna creates 70% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

1.48

creates per match

0.92

0.91

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Anaitasuna

1.48

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Anaitasuna

0.91

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anaitasuna+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anaitasuna ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Anaitasuna or draw

78%

Anaitasuna or Aurrerá Ondarroa

75%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

48%

Winning margin

Anaitasuna wins by 2+

27%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

Team goals

Anaitasuna 1+ goals

79%

Anaitasuna 2+ goals

46%

Anaitasuna 3+ goals

21%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

60%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

23%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Anaitasuna (draw refunded)

70%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Anaitasuna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Anaitasuna attack 1.48 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Anaitasuna defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Anaitasuna scores more

52%

level

25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

22%

Anaitasuna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Anaitasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff