Anadolu Selçukspor 3–3 Fatih Karagümrük

Anadolu Selçukspor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Fatih Karagümrük

A. Cin 82'

F. Kuruçuk 80' (OG)

K. Özdemir 8'

U. Akyol 84'

Y. Yeşilmen 34'

E. Zengin 31'

11/25/2018

League #205 · Kırmızı - 14Selçuk Üniversitesi 15 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Anadolu Selçukspor45%

×Draw22%

Fatih Karagümrük33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Anadolu SelçuksporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.70

Anadolu Selçukspor

2.00

Fatih Karagümrük

1.70

Anadolu Selçukspor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

1.80

1.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Anadolu Selçukspor

2.20

Fatih Karagümrük

1.80

allows per match

Anadolu Selçukspor

1.60

Fatih Karagümrük

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anadolu Selçukspor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadolu Selçukspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Anadolu Selçukspor or draw

67%

Anadolu Selçukspor or Fatih Karagümrük

78%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

55%

Winning margin

Anadolu Selçukspor wins by 2+

25%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Anadolu Selçukspor 1+ goals

86%

Anadolu Selçukspor 2+ goals

59%

Anadolu Selçukspor 3+ goals

32%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

82%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

51%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Anadolu Selçukspor (draw refunded)

57%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadolu Selçukspor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadolu Selçukspor attack 2.20 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.80 + Anadolu Selçukspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anadolu Selçukspor scores more

45%

level

22%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

33%

Anadolu Selçukspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anadolu Selçukspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

K. Özdemir

31'

E. Zengin

34'

Y. Yeşilmen

46'

A. Cin← C. Kader

76'

D. Yaldır← S. Bulut

76'

R. Civelek← A. Yıldız

77'

Y. Kılıç← R. Metin

80'

F. KuruçukOwn goal

82'

A. Cin

84'

U. Akyol

85'

E. Gökçe← T. Şahin

Anadolu

Fatih

13

Çetin

20

Özer

23

▼

Yıldız

5

Erdoğan

2

Demirbağ

22

🥅

Kuruçuk

10

⚽

Zengin

7

▼

Şahin

25

Alibaz

19

⚽

Akyol

8

⚽

1

20

18

35

5

8

▼

Metin

4

⚽

Özdemir

88

Atila

25

Torun

27

▼

Kader

9

▼

Bulut

Manager: M. Avcı

46'▲A. Cin←▼C. Kader

76'▲D. Yaldır←▼S. Bulut

77'▲Y. Kılıç←▼R. Metin

Anadolu Selçukspor substitutes

10Cin19Yaldır3Kılıç42Koç59Saygı53Yıldırım69Çil

Manager: A. Canel

76'▲R. Civelek←▼A. Yıldız

85'▲E. Gökçe←▼T. Şahin

Fatih Karagümrük substitutes

28Civelek14Gökçe1Hocaoğlu11Göksel32Öztürk18Iravul26Özbayraktar