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Anadolu Selçukspor vs Altay — League #205 2026

Anadolu Selçukspor
Anadolu Selçukspor
FT
0 – 3
Altay
Altay
3/3/2013League #205League #205 · Round 23Recep Konuk Stadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Anadolu Selçukspor45%
×Draw22%
Altay33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anadolu Selçukspor
1.85
Altay
1.55

Anadolu Selçukspor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Anadolu Selçukspor
2.20
Altay
1.50

allows per match

Anadolu Selçukspor
1.60
Altay
1.50

finishing

Anadolu Selçukspor+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadolu Selçukspor ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Anadolu Selçukspor or draw
67%
Anadolu Selçukspor or Altay
78%
Draw or Altay
55%

Winning margin

Anadolu Selçukspor wins by 2+
24%
Altay wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anadolu Selçukspor 1+ goals
84%
Anadolu Selçukspor 2+ goals
55%
Anadolu Selçukspor 3+ goals
28%
Altay 1+ goals
79%
Altay 2+ goals
46%
Altay 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Anadolu Selçukspor (draw refunded)
58%
Altay (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadolu Selçukspor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Altay away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadolu Selçukspor attack 2.20 + Altay defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Altay attack 1.50 + Anadolu Selçukspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anadolu Selçukspor scores more
45%
level
22%
Altay scores more
33%

Anadolu Selçukspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anadolu Selçukspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anadolu Selçukspor vs Altay

Altay beat Anadolu Selçukspor 3-0 in League #205 on March 3, 2013.

The match was played at Recep Konuk Stadi.