Anadia 3–0 Rabo Peixe: Result & Stats

Anadia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rabo Peixe

9/21/2024

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Anadia77%

×Draw15%

Rabo Peixe8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnadiaExpected goals in this matchRabo Peixe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.75

Anadia

2.63

Rabo Peixe

0.75

Anadia creates 251% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

0.00

1.50

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Anadia

2.00

Rabo Peixe

0.00

allows per match

Anadia

1.50

Rabo Peixe

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anadia+0.00on par

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadia ↓

Rabo Peixe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Anadia or draw

92%

Anadia or Rabo Peixe

85%

Draw or Rabo Peixe

23%

Winning margin

Anadia wins by 2+

55%

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Anadia 1+ goals

93%

Anadia 2+ goals

73%

Anadia 3+ goals

48%

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

53%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

17%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Anadia (draw refunded)

90%

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadia attack 2.00 + Rabo Peixe defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Rabo Peixe attack 0.00 + Anadia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Anadia scores more

77%

level

15%

Rabo Peixe scores more

8%

Anadia at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff