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Anadia vs Pinhalnovense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Anadia
Anadia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
11/22/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Anadia47%
×Draw22%
Pinhalnovense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anadia
2.00
Pinhalnovense
1.63

Anadia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Anadia
2.00
Pinhalnovense
1.75

allows per match

Anadia
1.50
Pinhalnovense
2.00

finishing

Anadia+0.00on par
Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadia ↓

Pinhalnovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Anadia or draw
68%
Anadia or Pinhalnovense
78%
Draw or Pinhalnovense
53%

Winning margin

Anadia wins by 2+
26%
Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anadia 1+ goals
86%
Anadia 2+ goals
59%
Anadia 3+ goals
32%
Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
80%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
48%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Anadia (draw refunded)
59%
Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadia attack 2.00 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pinhalnovense attack 1.75 + Anadia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Anadia scores more
47%
level
22%
Pinhalnovense scores more
32%

Anadia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anadia vs Pinhalnovense

Anadia beat Pinhalnovense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira in Anadia.