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Anadia vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Liga 3 2021

Anadia
Anadia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
1/21/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Anadia38%
×Draw28%
Lusitânia Lourosa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anadia
1.23
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 46 away

creates per match

Anadia
1.25
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.02

allows per match

Anadia
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.20

finishing

Anadia+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadia ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Anadia or draw
66%
Anadia or Lusitânia Lourosa
72%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
62%

Winning margin

Anadia wins by 2+
16%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Anadia 1+ goals
71%
Anadia 2+ goals
35%
Anadia 3+ goals
13%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
69%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
32%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Anadia (draw refunded)
52%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadia attack 1.25 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Anadia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Anadia scores more
38%
level
28%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
34%

Anadia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anadia vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Anadia and Lusitânia Lourosa drew 0-0 in Liga 3 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira in Anadia.