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Anadia vs Canelas 2010 — Liga 3 2021

Anadia
Anadia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
4/27/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 9Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Anadia39%
×Draw28%
Canelas 201033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anadia
1.22
Canelas 2010
1.11

Anadia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

creates per match

Anadia
1.25
Canelas 2010
0.93

allows per match

Anadia
1.29
Canelas 2010
1.19

finishing

Anadia+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadia ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Anadia or draw
67%
Anadia or Canelas 2010
72%
Draw or Canelas 2010
61%

Winning margin

Anadia wins by 2+
17%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Anadia 1+ goals
70%
Anadia 2+ goals
34%
Anadia 3+ goals
12%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
67%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
30%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Anadia (draw refunded)
54%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadia attack 1.25 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Anadia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Anadia scores more
39%
level
28%
Canelas 2010 scores more
33%

Anadia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Anadia 1–0 Canelas 2010

Anadia beat Canelas 2010 1-0 in Liga 3 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira in Anadia.