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Anadia vs Beira-Mar — League #458 2026

Anadia
Anadia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beira-Mar
Beira-Mar
8/9/2025League #458League #458 · Group B - 1Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Anadia26%
×Draw30%
Beira-Mar44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anadia
0.83
Beira-Mar
1.17

Beira-Mar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Anadia
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00

allows per match

Anadia
1.33
Beira-Mar
0.67

finishing

Anadia+0.00on par
Beira-Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadia ↓

Beira-Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Anadia or draw
56%
Anadia or Beira-Mar
70%
Draw or Beira-Mar
74%

Winning margin

Anadia wins by 2+
8%
Beira-Mar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Anadia 1+ goals
56%
Anadia 2+ goals
20%
Anadia 3+ goals
5%
Beira-Mar 1+ goals
69%
Beira-Mar 2+ goals
33%
Beira-Mar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Anadia (draw refunded)
37%
Beira-Mar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Beira-Mar away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadia attack 1.00 + Beira-Mar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Beira-Mar attack 1.00 + Anadia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Anadia scores more
26%
level
30%
Beira-Mar scores more
44%

Beira-Mar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anadia vs Beira-Mar

Anadia and Beira-Mar drew 0-0 in League #458 on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira in Anadia.