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An Giang vs Tay Ninh — V.League 2 2020

An Giang
An Giang
FT
1 – 0
Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
6/7/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 1Sân vận động Long Xuyên

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

An Giang49%
×Draw30%
Tay Ninh21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

An Giang
1.25
Tay Ninh
0.71

An Giang creates 76% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

An Giang
0.75
Tay Ninh
0.25

allows per match

An Giang
1.17
Tay Ninh
1.75

finishing

An Giang+0.00on par
Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An Giang ↓

Tay Ninh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

An Giang or draw
79%
An Giang or Tay Ninh
70%
Draw or Tay Ninh
51%

Winning margin

An Giang wins by 2+
23%
Tay Ninh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

An Giang 1+ goals
71%
An Giang 2+ goals
36%
An Giang 3+ goals
13%
Tay Ninh 1+ goals
51%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
16%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

An Giang (draw refunded)
70%
Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An Giang at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Tay Ninh away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An Giang attack 0.75 + Tay Ninh defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tay Ninh attack 0.25 + An Giang defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

An Giang scores more
49%
level
30%
Tay Ninh scores more
21%

An Giang at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "An Giang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: An Giang 1–0 Tay Ninh

An Giang beat Tay Ninh 1-0 in V.League 2 on June 7, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long Xuyên in Long Xuyen.