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An Giang vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

An Giang
An Giang
CANC
00:00
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
12/8/2021V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Cao Lãnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

An Giang22%
×Draw31%
Pho Hien47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

An Giang
0.69
Pho Hien
1.16

Pho Hien creates 68% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 52 away

creates per match

An Giang
0.75
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

An Giang
1.17
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

An Giang+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An Giang ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

An Giang or draw
53%
An Giang or Pho Hien
69%
Draw or Pho Hien
78%

Winning margin

An Giang wins by 2+
6%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

An Giang 1+ goals
50%
An Giang 2+ goals
15%
An Giang 3+ goals
3%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
69%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
32%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

An Giang (draw refunded)
32%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An Giang at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An Giang attack 0.75 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.69

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + An Giang defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

An Giang scores more
22%
level
31%
Pho Hien scores more
47%

Pho Hien at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

An Giang face Pho Hien (V.League 2)

V.League 2 returns with An Giang hosting Pho Hien. Match starts December 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

An Giang host Pho Hien at Sân vận động Cao Lãnh.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.