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An Giang vs Dak Lak — V.League 2 2020

An Giang
An Giang
FT
1 – 2
Dak Lak
Dak Lak
4/4/2021V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 3Sân vận động Kiên Giang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

An Giang35%
×Draw30%
Dak Lak36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

An Giang
1.04
Dak Lak
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

creates per match

An Giang
0.75
Dak Lak
0.95

allows per match

An Giang
1.17
Dak Lak
1.33

finishing

An Giang+0.00on par
Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An Giang ↓

Dak Lak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

An Giang or draw
64%
An Giang or Dak Lak
70%
Draw or Dak Lak
65%

Winning margin

An Giang wins by 2+
13%
Dak Lak wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

An Giang 1+ goals
65%
An Giang 2+ goals
28%
An Giang 3+ goals
9%
Dak Lak 1+ goals
65%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
29%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

An Giang (draw refunded)
49%
Dak Lak (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An Giang at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An Giang attack 0.75 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + An Giang defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

An Giang scores more
35%
level
30%
Dak Lak scores more
36%

Dak Lak at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dak Lak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: An Giang vs Dak Lak

Dak Lak beat An Giang 2-1 in V.League 2 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Sân vận động Kiên Giang in Rạch Giá.