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An Giang vs Bóng đá Huế — V.League 2 2020

An Giang
An Giang
FT
1 – 2
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
9/25/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 10Sân vận động Long Xuyên

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

An Giang38%
×Draw29%
Bóng đá Huế33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

An Giang
1.17
Bóng đá Huế
1.06

An Giang creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 51 away

creates per match

An Giang
0.75
Bóng đá Huế
0.96

allows per match

An Giang
1.17
Bóng đá Huế
1.59

finishing

An Giang+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An Giang ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

An Giang or draw
67%
An Giang or Bóng đá Huế
71%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
62%

Winning margin

An Giang wins by 2+
16%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

An Giang 1+ goals
69%
An Giang 2+ goals
33%
An Giang 3+ goals
11%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
65%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
29%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

An Giang (draw refunded)
54%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An Giang at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An Giang attack 0.75 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + An Giang defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

An Giang scores more
38%
level
29%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
33%

An Giang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "An Giang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: An Giang 1–2 Bóng đá Huế

Bóng đá Huế beat An Giang 2-1 in V.League 2 on September 25, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long Xuyên in Long Xuyen.