An der Fahner Höhe 0–4 International Leipzig

An der Fahner Höhe

FT

0 – 4

International Leipzig

9/22/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Stadion Dachwig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

An der Fahner Höhe48%

×Draw22%

International Leipzig31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

An der Fahner HöheExpected goals in this matchInternational Leipzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.56

An der Fahner Höhe

1.98

International Leipzig

1.56

An der Fahner Höhe creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

1.41

creates per match

1.36

1.76

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.41

International Leipzig

1.36

allows per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.76

International Leipzig

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An der Fahner Höhe ↓

International Leipzig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

An der Fahner Höhe or draw

69%

An der Fahner Höhe or International Leipzig

78%

Draw or International Leipzig

52%

Winning margin

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

27%

International Leipzig wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

86%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

59%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

31%

International Leipzig 1+ goals

79%

International Leipzig 2+ goals

46%

International Leipzig 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

61%

International Leipzig (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An der Fahner Höhe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.41 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.98

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

48%

level

22%

International Leipzig scores more

31%

An der Fahner Höhe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "An der Fahner Höhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff