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An der Fahner Höhe vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
4/6/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 22Stadion Dachwig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

An der Fahner Höhe51%
×Draw22%
Arnstadt27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

An der Fahner Höhe
1.93
Arnstadt
1.35

An der Fahner Höhe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

creates per match

An der Fahner Höhe
1.41
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

An der Fahner Höhe
1.76
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An der Fahner Höhe ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

An der Fahner Höhe or draw
73%
An der Fahner Höhe or Arnstadt
78%
Draw or Arnstadt
49%

Winning margin

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
29%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
85%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
57%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
30%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
74%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
39%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
65%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An der Fahner Höhe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.41 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.93

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

An der Fahner Höhe scores more
51%
level
22%
Arnstadt scores more
27%

An der Fahner Höhe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "An der Fahner Höhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: An der Fahner Höhe vs Arnstadt

An der Fahner Höhe beat Arnstadt 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dachwig in Dachwig.