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Amurrio Club vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
1/15/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Estadio Basarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amurrio Club42%
×Draw28%
Lagun Onak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amurrio Club
1.27
Lagun Onak
1.01

Amurrio Club creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 114 away

creates per match

Amurrio Club
1.21
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Amurrio Club
1.05
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Amurrio Club+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amurrio Club ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amurrio Club or draw
71%
Amurrio Club or Lagun Onak
72%
Draw or Lagun Onak
58%

Winning margin

Amurrio Club wins by 2+
19%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amurrio Club 1+ goals
72%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
36%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
14%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
64%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
27%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
59%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amurrio Club at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amurrio Club attack 1.21 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Amurrio Club defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Amurrio Club scores more
42%
level
28%
Lagun Onak scores more
29%

Amurrio Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Amurrio Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amurrio Club 0 – 0 Lagun Onak

Amurrio Club and Lagun Onak drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Basarte in Amurrio.