Amurrio Club 1–1 Deportivo Alavés II

Amurrio Club

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Alavés II

2/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Estadio Basarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amurrio Club29%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Alavés II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amurrio ClubExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.29

Amurrio Club

1.00

Deportivo Alavés II

1.29

Deportivo Alavés II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

1.53

1.05

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Amurrio Club

1.21

Deportivo Alavés II

1.53

allows per match

Amurrio Club

1.05

Deportivo Alavés II

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amurrio Club ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Amurrio Club or draw

57%

Amurrio Club or Deportivo Alavés II

72%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés II

71%

Winning margin

Amurrio Club wins by 2+

11%

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Amurrio Club 1+ goals

63%

Amurrio Club 2+ goals

26%

Amurrio Club 3+ goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)

40%

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Amurrio Club at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Amurrio Club attack 1.21 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Amurrio Club defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Amurrio Club scores more

29%

level

28%

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

43%

Deportivo Alavés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amurrio Club vs Deportivo Alavés II

Amurrio Club and Deportivo Alavés II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Basarte in Amurrio.

Amurrio Club vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Amurrio Club vs Deportivo Alavés II