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Amurrio Club vs Barakaldo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Estadio Basarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amurrio Club27%
×Draw27%
Barakaldo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amurrio Club
1.01
Barakaldo
1.40

Barakaldo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

creates per match

Amurrio Club
1.21
Barakaldo
1.74

allows per match

Amurrio Club
1.05
Barakaldo
0.82

finishing

Amurrio Club+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amurrio Club ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Amurrio Club or draw
54%
Amurrio Club or Barakaldo
73%
Draw or Barakaldo
73%

Winning margin

Amurrio Club wins by 2+
10%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Amurrio Club 1+ goals
64%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
27%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
8%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
75%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
41%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
37%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amurrio Club at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amurrio Club attack 1.21 + Barakaldo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Barakaldo attack 1.74 + Amurrio Club defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Amurrio Club scores more
27%
level
27%
Barakaldo scores more
46%

Barakaldo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Amurrio Club 1–3 Barakaldo

Barakaldo beat Amurrio Club 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Basarte in Amurrio.