Amurrio Club 1–2 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

Amurrio Club

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Aurrerá Ondarroa

10/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Estadio Basarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amurrio Club47%

×Draw27%

Aurrerá Ondarroa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amurrio ClubExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.99

Amurrio Club

1.43

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.99

Amurrio Club creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

1.21

creates per match

0.92

1.05

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Amurrio Club

1.21

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Amurrio Club

1.05

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amurrio Club ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Amurrio Club or draw

74%

Amurrio Club or Aurrerá Ondarroa

73%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

53%

Winning margin

Amurrio Club wins by 2+

23%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

Team goals

Amurrio Club 1+ goals

76%

Amurrio Club 2+ goals

42%

Amurrio Club 3+ goals

17%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

63%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Amurrio Club (draw refunded)

64%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Amurrio Club at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Amurrio Club attack 1.21 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Amurrio Club defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Amurrio Club scores more

47%

level

27%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

26%

Amurrio Club at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Amurrio Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amurrio Club vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat Amurrio Club 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Basarte in Amurrio.

Amurrio Club vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Amurrio Club vs Aurrerá Ondarroa