Amorebieta 0–2 Zamora: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Zamora

Rafa Tresaco 66', 42'

4/20/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amorebieta43%

×Draw27%

Zamora30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.10

Amorebieta

1.38

Zamora

1.10

Amorebieta creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 69 away

1.47

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.47

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Amorebieta

1.16

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

70%

Amorebieta or Zamora

73%

Draw or Zamora

57%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

20%

Zamora wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

75%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

40%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

16%

Zamora 1+ goals

67%

Zamora 2+ goals

30%

Zamora 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

59%

Zamora (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.47 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zamora attack 1.04 + Amorebieta defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Amorebieta scores more

43%

level

27%

Zamora scores more

30%

Amorebieta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

R. Lucero

13'

24'

E. Perez

33'

C. Gutierrez

42'

Rafa Tresaco

50'

R. Tresaco

55'

Kike

57'

P. HerviasMissed penalty

60'

Daniel Selma← A. Coulibaly

66'

Rafa Tresaco

73'

Álvaro Romero← Pito Camacho

79'

Enol Coto← Pablo Hervías

79'

Mauro Bravo← Eric Pérez

81'

E. Frimpong← Kike Márquez

81'

Joel Priego← R. Lucero

85'

Jon Azkuna← Javier Sola

85'

Unax Benito← Aimar Vicandi

86'

E. Frimpong

90+2'

Aleix Gorjón← Rafa Tresaco

90+2'

Julen Castañeda← Edu Campabadal

Amorebieta

Zamora

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Natxo González

60'▲Daniel Selma←▼A. Coulibaly

79'▲Enol Coto←▼Pablo Hervías

79'▲Mauro Bravo←▼Eric Pérez

85'▲Jon Azkuna←▼Javier Sola

85'▲Unax Benito←▼Aimar Vicandi

Amorebieta substitutes

SelmaCotoBravoAzkunaBenitoGonzálezMontoyaMasllorensKortazarCandaudap

Manager: Juan Sabas

73'▲Álvaro Romero←▼Pito Camacho

81'▲E. Frimpong←▼Kike Márquez

81'▲Joel Priego←▼R. Lucero

90+2'▲Aleix Gorjón←▼Rafa Tresaco

90+2'▲Julen Castañeda←▼Edu Campabadal

Zamora substitutes

RomeroFrimpongPriegoGorjónCastañedaBoloAltubeBelloMacho