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Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
4/23/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Amorebieta41%
×Draw29%
UD Logroñés30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.23
UD Logroñés
1.00

Amorebieta creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.54
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Amorebieta
0.93
UD Logroñés
0.91

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
70%
Amorebieta or UD Logroñés
71%
Draw or UD Logroñés
59%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
18%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
71%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
35%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
13%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
63%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
26%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
58%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Amorebieta scores more
41%
level
29%
UD Logroñés scores more
30%

Amorebieta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Amorebieta 1–0 UD Logroñés

Amorebieta beat UD Logroñés 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.