Amorebieta 3–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sporting Gijon

3/24/2024

Segunda División · Round 32Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amorebieta41%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gijon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.96

Amorebieta

1.17

Sporting Gijon

0.96

Amorebieta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 169 away

1.19

creates per match

0.90

1.02

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.19

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

Amorebieta

1.02

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

70%

Amorebieta or Sporting Gijon

71%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

59%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

17%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

69%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

33%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

11%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

62%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

25%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

58%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.19 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Amorebieta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Amorebieta scores more

41%

level

29%

Sporting Gijon scores more

30%

Amorebieta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff