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Amorebieta vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sestao River
Sestao River
11/30/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amorebieta45%
×Draw26%
Sestao River29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.46
Sestao River
1.10

Amorebieta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.47
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

Amorebieta
1.16
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
71%
Amorebieta or Sestao River
74%
Draw or Sestao River
55%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
22%
Sestao River wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
77%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
43%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
18%
Sestao River 1+ goals
67%
Sestao River 2+ goals
30%
Sestao River 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
61%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.47 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Amorebieta defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Amorebieta scores more
45%
level
26%
Sestao River scores more
29%

Amorebieta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Amorebieta 2–0 Sestao River

Amorebieta beat Sestao River 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.