Amorebieta 2–1 Portugalete: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portugalete

Koldo Obieta 75'

Iker Unzueta 47'

Thaylor Lubanzadio 68'

1/23/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Amorebieta49%

×Draw27%

Portugalete24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchPortugalete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

Amorebieta

1.42

Portugalete

0.90

Amorebieta creates 58% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

1.54

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.54

Portugalete

0.86

allows per match

Amorebieta

0.93

Portugalete

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Portugalete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

76%

Amorebieta or Portugalete

73%

Draw or Portugalete

51%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

24%

Portugalete wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

76%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

41%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

17%

Portugalete 1+ goals

59%

Portugalete 2+ goals

23%

Portugalete 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

67%

Portugalete (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Portugalete away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Portugalete defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Portugalete attack 0.86 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amorebieta scores more

49%

level

27%

Portugalete scores more

24%

Amorebieta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

Iker Unzueta

65'

Fernando Rubio← Antonio Salado

67'

Koldo Obieta← Íñigo Orozco

67'

Mikel Álvaro← Asier Etxaburu

68'

Thaylor Lubanzadio

72'

Jon Moya← Diego Rozas

75'

Koldo Obieta

76'

Chopi← Esteve Monterde

76'

Urko Vera← Mario Musy

76'

Valero← Ayala

80'

I. Unzueta

88'

Ekaitz Molina← Iker Bilbao

90+1'

Beñat Garro← Mikel Zarrabeitia

Amorebieta

Portugalete

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

67'▲Koldo Obieta←▼Íñigo Orozco

67'▲Mikel Álvaro←▼Asier Etxaburu

88'▲Ekaitz Molina←▼Iker Bilbao

90+1'▲Beñat Garro←▼Mikel Zarrabeitia

Amorebieta substitutes

ObietaÁlvaroMolinaGarroAldalurGoiriaGarai

Manager: Asier Santana

65'▲Fernando Rubio←▼Antonio Salado

72'▲Jon Moya←▼Diego Rozas

76'▲Chopi←▼Esteve Monterde

76'▲Urko Vera←▼Mario Musy

76'▲Valero←▼Ayala

Portugalete substitutes

RubioMoyaChopiVeraValeroSalinasBittorPérez