Amorebieta 1–0 Lugo: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lugo

Álvaro Marín 19'

5/24/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amorebieta44%

×Draw28%

Lugo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchLugo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.00

Amorebieta

1.34

Lugo

1.00

Amorebieta creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.47

creates per match

0.84

1.16

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.47

Lugo

0.84

allows per match

Amorebieta

1.16

Lugo

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Lugo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

72%

Amorebieta or Lugo

72%

Draw or Lugo

56%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

21%

Lugo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

74%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

39%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

15%

Lugo 1+ goals

63%

Lugo 2+ goals

26%

Lugo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

61%

Lugo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.47 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lugo attack 0.84 + Amorebieta defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amorebieta scores more

44%

level

28%

Lugo scores more

28%

Amorebieta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Álvaro Marín

59'

A. Coulibaly← Álvaro Marín

59'

Aitor Intxausti← Aimar Vicandi

59'

Daniel Selma← Javier Sola

60'

Martín Ochoa← Jorge González

63'

Jon Ceberio← Yayo

73'

N. Ben Hamed← Pablo Hervías

85'

Mauro Bravo← Íñigo Muñoz

86'

R. Martinez

86'

M. Bravo Fernandez

90'

Hugo Padín← Dani Vidal

Amorebieta

Lugo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Natxo González

59'▲A. Coulibaly←▼Álvaro Marín

59'▲Aitor Intxausti←▼Aimar Vicandi

59'▲Daniel Selma←▼Javier Sola

73'▲N. Ben Hamed←▼Pablo Hervías

85'▲Mauro Bravo←▼Íñigo Muñoz

Amorebieta substitutes

CoulibalyIntxaustiSelmaHamedBravoGonzálezCamposCalaveraMarino

Manager: Álex Ortiz

60'▲Martín Ochoa←▼Jorge González

63'▲Jon Ceberio←▼Yayo

90'▲Hugo Padín←▼Dani Vidal

Lugo substitutes

OchoaCeberioPadínVaqueroCidreSánchezRubalPereiraCruzNicholasCacharrón

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Amorebieta 1–0 Lugo

Amorebieta beat Lugo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 24, 2025.

Goals: Álvaro Marín (19').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.

Amorebieta vs Lugo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Amorebieta 1–0 Lugo