Amorebieta 1–1 Levante: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Levante

Eneko Jauregi 64'

M. Bouldini 30'

8/11/2023

Segunda División · Round 1Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amorebieta35%

×Draw30%

Levante35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.04

Amorebieta

1.05

Levante

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 66 away

1.19

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.19

Levante

1.05

allows per match

Amorebieta

1.02

Levante

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

65%

Amorebieta or Levante

70%

Draw or Levante

65%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

14%

Levante wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

65%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

28%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

9%

Levante 1+ goals

65%

Levante 2+ goals

28%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

50%

Levante (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

Levante away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.19 + Levante defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Levante attack 1.05 + Amorebieta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Amorebieta scores more

35%

level

30%

Levante scores more

35%

Amorebieta at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Iker Seguín

Amorebieta · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

Sergio Postigo

30'

M. Bouldini↳ Dela

34'

Álejandro Cantero

45+1'

Oriol Rey

63'

Josué Dorrio← L. Quintero

64'

Eneko Jauregi↳ Àlex Carbonell

65'

Eneko JauregiGoal confirmed

70'

Rober Ibáñez← G. Kochorashvili

77'

Brugui← Cantero

77'

Andrés García← Óscar Clemente

85'

Eraso← Eneko Jauregi

85'

Erik Morán← Àlex Carbonell

90+6'

Félix Garreta← Iker Seguín

90+4'

Edgar Alcañiz← Rober Ibáñez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmorebietaLevante

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots7

8Corners2

20Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked0

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

293Total Passes432

213Accurate Passes338

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2