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Amorebieta vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
CANC
22:00
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Amorebieta49%
×Draw27%
Haro Deportivo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.43
Haro Deportivo
0.91

Amorebieta creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.54
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Amorebieta
0.93
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
76%
Amorebieta or Haro Deportivo
73%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
51%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
24%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
76%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
42%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
17%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
60%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
23%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
67%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amorebieta scores more
49%
level
27%
Haro Deportivo scores more
24%

Amorebieta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amorebieta face Haro Deportivo (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Amorebieta hosting Haro Deportivo. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Amorebieta host Haro Deportivo at Campo Municipal de Urritxe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.