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Amorebieta vs Guijuelo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
CANC
00:00
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Amorebieta51%
×Draw27%
Guijuelo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.42
Guijuelo
0.82

Amorebieta creates 73% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.54
Guijuelo
0.71

allows per match

Amorebieta
0.93
Guijuelo
1.29

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
78%
Amorebieta or Guijuelo
73%
Draw or Guijuelo
49%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
25%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
76%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
41%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
17%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
56%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
20%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
70%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Guijuelo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Guijuelo attack 0.71 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Amorebieta scores more
51%
level
27%
Guijuelo scores more
22%

Amorebieta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amorebieta face Guijuelo (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Amorebieta hosting Guijuelo. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Amorebieta host Guijuelo at Campo Municipal de Urritxe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.