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Amorebieta vs FC Cartagena — Segunda División 2018

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
10/1/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amorebieta46%
×Draw27%
FC Cartagena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.38
FC Cartagena
0.98

Amorebieta creates 41% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.19
FC Cartagena
0.95

allows per match

Amorebieta
1.02
FC Cartagena
1.57

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
73%
Amorebieta or FC Cartagena
73%
Draw or FC Cartagena
54%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
22%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
75%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
40%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
16%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
62%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
26%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
63%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.19 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Amorebieta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Amorebieta scores more
46%
level
27%
FC Cartagena scores more
27%

Amorebieta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Amorebieta 0–0 FC Cartagena

Amorebieta and FC Cartagena drew 0-0 in Segunda División on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.