Amorebieta 2–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Castellón

Josué Dorrio 28'

Julen Jon Guerrero 12'

Raúl Sánchez 90'

3/5/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Amorebieta46%

×Draw27%

Castellón27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

Amorebieta

1.40

Castellón

1.02

Amorebieta creates 37% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 57 away

1.54

creates per match

1.11

0.93

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.54

Castellón

1.11

allows per match

Amorebieta

0.93

Castellón

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

73%

Amorebieta or Castellón

73%

Draw or Castellón

54%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

22%

Castellón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

75%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

41%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

17%

Castellón 1+ goals

64%

Castellón 2+ goals

27%

Castellón 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

62%

Castellón (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Castellón attack 1.11 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Amorebieta scores more

46%

level

27%

Castellón scores more

27%

Amorebieta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Julen Jon Guerrero

28'

Josué Dorrio

31'

Y. Diori← Borja Granero

34'

J. Calavera

65'

J. Anton

77'

Gorka Iturraspe← Julen Jon Guerrero

80'

K. Sibo

85'

E. Urain← K. Sibo

85'

J. de León← K. Koné

86'

Haritz Albisua← Eneko Jauregi

90+4'

G. Iturraspe

90'

Unai Buján← Josué Dorrio

90+3'

David Cubillas← G. Kochorashvili

90'

Raúl Sánchez

Amorebieta

Castellón

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Dorrio

▼

Sibo

⚽

▼

Guerrero

▼

Jauregi

Manager: Haritz Mújika

77'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Julen Jon Guerrero

85'▲E. Urain←▼K. Sibo

86'▲Haritz Albisua←▼Eneko Jauregi

90'▲Unai Buján←▼Josué Dorrio

Amorebieta substitutes

IturraspeUrainAlbisuaBujánJesúsSeguínMurúaPraderaMarinoLópez

Manager: Albert Rudé

31'▲Y. Diori←▼Borja Granero

85'▲J. de León←▼K. Koné

90+3'▲David Cubillas←▼G. Kochorashvili

Castellón substitutes

DioriLeónCubillasSarrSalvadorIndiasBaas