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Amorebieta vs Barcelona B — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona B
Barcelona B
11/17/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amorebieta40%
×Draw26%
Barcelona B34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.42
Barcelona B
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.47
Barcelona B
1.45

allows per match

Amorebieta
1.16
Barcelona B
1.37

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Barcelona B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
66%
Amorebieta or Barcelona B
74%
Draw or Barcelona B
60%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
19%
Barcelona B wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
76%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
41%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
17%
Barcelona B 1+ goals
73%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
37%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
54%
Barcelona B (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.47 + Barcelona B defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barcelona B attack 1.45 + Amorebieta defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Amorebieta scores more
40%
level
26%
Barcelona B scores more
34%

Amorebieta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Amorebieta 2–1 Barcelona B

Amorebieta beat Barcelona B 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.