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Amora W vs Vilaverdense W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Amora W
Amora W
FT
0 – 4
Vilaverdense W
Vilaverdense W
1/8/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 10Parque do Serrado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Amora W40%
×Draw22%
Vilaverdense W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amora W
1.77
Vilaverdense W
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Amora W
0.45
Vilaverdense W
0.76

allows per match

Amora W
2.64
Vilaverdense W
3.09

finishing

Amora W+0.00on par
Vilaverdense W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora W ↓

Vilaverdense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Amora W or draw
63%
Amora W or Vilaverdense W
78%
Draw or Vilaverdense W
60%

Winning margin

Amora W wins by 2+
21%
Vilaverdense W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Amora W 1+ goals
83%
Amora W 2+ goals
53%
Amora W 3+ goals
26%
Vilaverdense W 1+ goals
82%
Vilaverdense W 2+ goals
51%
Vilaverdense W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Amora W (draw refunded)
52%
Vilaverdense W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora W at home — creates 0.45, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Vilaverdense W away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora W attack 0.45 + Vilaverdense W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 1.77

Vilaverdense W attack 0.76 + Amora W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Amora W scores more
40%
level
22%
Vilaverdense W scores more
37%

Amora W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amora W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amora W vs Vilaverdense W

Vilaverdense W beat Amora W 4-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Parque do Serrado in Amora.