Amora W 1–3 Sporting Braga W: Result & Stats

Amora W

FT

1 – 3

Sporting Braga W

9/11/2022

1a Divisão - Women · Round 1Parque do Serrado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Amora W12%

×Draw17%

Sporting Braga W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amora WExpected goals in this matchSporting Braga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.35

Amora W

0.85

Sporting Braga W

2.35

Sporting Braga W creates 176% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

0.45

creates per match

2.07

2.64

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Amora W

0.45

Sporting Braga W

2.07

allows per match

Amora W

2.64

Sporting Braga W

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amora W+0.00on par

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora W ↓

Sporting Braga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Amora W or draw

29%

Amora W or Sporting Braga W

83%

Draw or Sporting Braga W

88%

Winning margin

Amora W wins by 2+

4%

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Amora W 1+ goals

57%

Amora W 2+ goals

21%

Amora W 3+ goals

5%

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals

90%

Sporting Braga W 2+ goals

68%

Sporting Braga W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Amora W (draw refunded)

15%

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora W at home — creates 0.45, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora W attack 0.45 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.85

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Amora W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Amora W scores more

12%

level

17%

Sporting Braga W scores more

71%

Sporting Braga W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff