Amora W 0–1 Ouriense W: Result & Stats

Amora W

FT

0 – 1

Ouriense W

10/23/2022

1a Divisão - Women · Round 3Parque do Serrado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Amora W37%

×Draw23%

Ouriense W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amora WExpected goals in this matchOuriense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.64

Amora W

1.59

Ouriense W

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

0.45

creates per match

0.64

2.64

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Amora W

0.45

Ouriense W

0.64

allows per match

Amora W

2.64

Ouriense W

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amora W+0.00on par

Ouriense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora W ↓

Ouriense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Amora W or draw

61%

Amora W or Ouriense W

77%

Draw or Ouriense W

63%

Winning margin

Amora W wins by 2+

18%

Ouriense W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Amora W 1+ goals

80%

Amora W 2+ goals

47%

Amora W 3+ goals

21%

Ouriense W 1+ goals

81%

Ouriense W 2+ goals

49%

Ouriense W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Amora W (draw refunded)

49%

Ouriense W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora W at home — creates 0.45, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Ouriense W away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora W attack 0.45 + Ouriense W defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ouriense W attack 0.64 + Amora W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Amora W scores more

37%

level

23%

Ouriense W scores more

39%

Ouriense W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ouriense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff