Amora 2–1 São João Ver: Result & Stats

Amora

2 – 1

São João Ver

Geraldo 82'

J. Delgado 49'

A. Brandao 3'

9/29/2019

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio da Medideira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Amora39%

×Draw24%

São João Ver37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmoraExpected goals in this matchSão João Ver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.55

Amora

1.58

São João Ver

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.67

1.43

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Amora

2.00

São João Ver

1.67

allows per match

Amora

1.43

São João Ver

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amora+0.00on par

São João Ver+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

São João Ver →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Amora or draw

63%

Amora or São João Ver

76%

Draw or São João Ver

61%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+

19%

São João Ver wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals

79%

Amora 2+ goals

47%

Amora 3+ goals

21%

São João Ver 1+ goals

79%

São João Ver 2+ goals

46%

São João Ver 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)

51%

São João Ver (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

São João Ver away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 2.00 + São João Ver defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

São João Ver attack 1.67 + Amora defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Amora scores more

39%

level

24%

São João Ver scores more

37%

Amora at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Brandao

49'

J. Delgado

71'

82'

Geraldo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff