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Amora vs Sanjoanense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Amora
Amora
FT
0 – 1
Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
10/19/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio da Medideira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Amora44%
×Draw23%
Sanjoanense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amora
1.72
Sanjoanense
1.45

Amora creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Amora
2.78
Sanjoanense
1.56

allows per match

Amora
1.33
Sanjoanense
0.67

finishing

Amora+0.00on par
Sanjoanense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Sanjoanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Amora or draw
67%
Amora or Sanjoanense
77%
Draw or Sanjoanense
56%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+
23%
Sanjoanense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals
82%
Amora 2+ goals
51%
Amora 3+ goals
25%
Sanjoanense 1+ goals
77%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
42%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)
57%
Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Sanjoanense away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 2.78 + Sanjoanense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sanjoanense attack 1.56 + Amora defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amora scores more
44%
level
23%
Sanjoanense scores more
33%

Amora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amora vs Sanjoanense

Sanjoanense beat Amora 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio da Medideira in Amora.