Amora 4–1 Pêro Pinheiro: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Amora

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pêro Pinheiro

3/30/2024

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 6Estádio da Medideira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Amora60%

×Draw23%

Pêro Pinheiro17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmoraExpected goals in this matchPêro Pinheiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.84

Amora

1.79

Pêro Pinheiro

0.84

Amora creates 113% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

1.45

creates per match

0.43

1.25

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Amora

1.45

Pêro Pinheiro

0.43

allows per match

Amora

1.25

Pêro Pinheiro

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amora+0.00on par

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Amora or draw

83%

Amora or Pêro Pinheiro

77%

Draw or Pêro Pinheiro

40%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+

34%

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals

83%

Amora 2+ goals

53%

Amora 3+ goals

26%

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

57%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

21%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)

78%

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 1.45 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + Amora defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Amora scores more

60%

level

23%

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

17%

Amora at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff